lunes, 23 de junio de 2008

TechCrunching The Enterprise: TechCrunchIT

Michael Arrington

47 comments »

We just launched TechCrunchIT, our newest property, with editors Steve Gillmor and Nik Cubrilovic. The site is focused on the enterprise tech space - all the software, technologies, standards, platforms, etc. that help companies do their thing, and form the building blocks of the products we feature on TechCrunch, MobileCrunch and our other blogs.

TCIT will be a lot like TechCrunch in editorial and content style - a range of enterprise-related news and analysis including applications, open standards, platforms, cloud computing, microenterprises, customer experience, legacy enterprise, social media, information management and software among other subjects. They aim to promote an understanding of emerging and existing enterprise technologies and products and to analyze their commercial, social, and consumer impact.

Make sense? If it’s not clear where the line is between TechCrunch and TechCrunchIT, perhaps my muffler analogy will help. A frequent debate on the Gillmor Gang is over the importance, or at least the interestingness, of end user/consumer products (think YouTube) v. the technologies that allow those products to exist (in YouTube’s case, Adobe Flash). I personally think the YouTube’s of the world are more interesting, and I refer to those products as “Ferarris.” All the technology that goes into making those Ferarris I refer to as “mufflers” (the enterprise guys hate that, which is why I keep doing it).

Basically, TechCrunchIT is a blog about the mufflers. And Steve and Nik are going to do their best to keep you entertained while reporting every important development in the muffler market.

Quite often there will be cross coverage between the blogs when we think a particular story will interest both sets of readers. Also, Steve and Nik will continue to occasionally write here on TechCrunch. You may even see me hop over to TechCrunchIT once in a while to write a post or two.

We have two terrific sponsors right out of the gate - Microsoft and Sun. Thanks to both of them for believing in us as we get started with TechCrunchIT. There are still a few bugs on the site, so bear with us as the paint dries and everything settles down. But if you hurry over there now, you’ll see some live coverage of the Salesforce/Google event in San Francisco today.

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Top 100 Advertisers Shifted $1 Billion To the Web Last Year At The Expense Of TV And Newspapers

Erick Schonfeld

27 comments »

The top 100 advertisers in the U.S., who represent 41 percent of total advertising spending, shifted about $1 billion last year from TV and newspapers to the Web. An analysis from Ad Age shows that overall media spending in “measured” categories (TV, print, radio, Web) by the top 100 advertisers was flat in 2007, with 0.3 percent growth to $61.3 billion. But spending on Web display ads rose 33 percent to $4.2 billion. The article notes:

Put another way, these top-tier marketers increased measured internet spending by $1 billion; slashed newspaper spending by $674 million; and cut TV budgets by $406 million.

This is yet one more piece of evidence that dollars are flowing from traditional media to the Web. The analysis is based on data from TNS Media Intelligence for 2007. TNS only measures display advertising, and not search.

The big question is whether the recession that has already hit some categories of advertising will hit the Web this year. Already, the growth of spending in display advertising slowed overall in the first quarter of 2008. And the Interactive Advertising Bureau showed a slight decline for all Web advertising (including search) to $5.8 billion in the first quarter, from $5.9 billion in the fourth quarter of last year.

Here is a table from Ad Age showing the breakdown in spending for the top 100 advertisers (the $44 billion in “unmeasured spending” includes things like direct marketing, in-store advertising, and other promotions, and is not included in the figures cited above):

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Chat With Facebook Friends and Share Flickr Pics or YouTube Vids On Your Phone With Jibe Mobile (Invites)

Erick Schonfeld

18 comments »


There are plenty of ways to upload photos and other content from your phone to the Web. But the premise behind Jibe Mobile is simply to be able to use your phone to share social media already on the Web with your friends, whether they are online or out with their phones. The service is launching today in private beta. We have invites for the first 300 people to sign up here.

Jibe is a Website, a mobile app, and a Facebook app. It lets you import your Facebook friends as contacts, or invite your own. Once you download Jibe’s mobile app to any Java phone (including ones from Nokia, Motorola, Samsung, and Sony Ericsson), you can text chat with any contact. I tested it on my Blackberry curve and it worked without a hitch.

In addition to the basic IM functionality, Jibe lets you send outs “shouts” (little emoticon-like avatars who say things like “What up Dude?”), share photos from Flickr, videos from YouTube, or stories from RSS news feeds. The shouts come out as both text messages and short audio messages through your phone’s speaker.

CEO and founder Amir Sarhangi says:

We are not a social network. We are really the glue in the middle.

Jibe wants to make it easy to socialize with friends around social media from your phone. For instance, you can browse channels of popular YouTube videos, Flickr photos, or top Yahoo News feeds, all from within the mobile app. You can also search for specific Flickr images or YouTube videos without leaving the app. Once you find something you want to share, you can forward it to a contact with a few clicks.

Jibe will soon add support for more social networks beyond Facebook, such as Bebo and MySpace. And will also support more social media services, such as PhotoBucket. What Jibe doesn’t let you do just yet is upload your own photos or videos from your mobile phone to your favorite social network or social media Website. Other than that, it is a solid app that is off to a good start.

The company was founded in December 2005, and raised $800,000 in angel money last December.


Chictopia Takes On Sugar Inc With “Everybody is Ugly”

Jason Kincaid

37 comments »

Chictopia, a social network focused on fashion, has launched a new online publishing network dubbed “Everybody is Ugly” that aims to take on Sugar Inc’s empire. The network features a number of online magazines directed towards various demographics, including Male Ugly (for men), Coed Ugly (college students), and Brit Ugly (for Europeans).

The company says that each blog will be edited by experienced fashion writers who will also be accessible through Chictopia’s social network. Because each writer’s profile will be made public, readers should be able to selectively choose the articles that correspond best to their styles - something that can be hard to do with the faceless authors found in fashion magazines.

Chictopia’s flagship social networking site, which launched two months ago, allows users to upload their style photos and browse through outfits their peers have shared. There are a number of similar fashion sites on the web, including StyleMob, ShareYourLook, and MyStyleDiary.

The new blogs may be enough to separate Chictopia from these relatively small networks, but the company may be in for a rude (and dare I say, ugly) awakening when it faces off with Sugar Inc, which has over 8 million unique visitors across its blog network every month.


Google’s Android Hits Snags With Mobile Carriers

Erick Schonfeld

28 comments »


Google is finding that launching an entirely new cell phone platform is taking longer than expected. When it first announced its Android mobile operating system, Google said the first Android phones would be available during the second half of this year. Now the mobile carriers that signed up as Android partners are pushing out their launches, with only T-Mobile still trying to get an Android phone out by the fourth quarter of this year. All the other carriers are pushing out their deployments until 2009. Reports the WSJ:

T-Mobile USA expects to deliver an Android-powered phone in the fourth period. But that launch is taking up so much of Google’s attention and resources that Sprint Nextel Corp., which had hoped to launch an Android phone this year, won’t be able to, a person familiar with the matter said.

China Mobile, the largest wireless carrier in the world with nearly 400 million subscriber accounts, had planned to launch an Android phone in the third quarter but it has run into issues that will likely delay the launch until late this year or early 2009, a person familiar with the matter says.

. . . AT&T Inc., the U.S. carrier for the iPhone, is still working with Google to determine if it is feasible to launch an Android phone.

Sprint wants to add its own bells and whistles to its Android service, and the recent management shakeup is not helping matters. China Mobile is having trouble getting Android to work with Chinese characters and integrating it into its existing data services.

By the time Android phones seriously hit the market next year, there will be more than 10 million iPhones and many more Blackberries and other smart phones to contend with. Android holds a lot of promise and is generating a lot of excitement among developers, who are already creating interesting mobile apps for the platform. But without phones in consumer’s hands, it won’t matter how cool Android is.

Getting Android right is immensely important to Google, which faces a huge platform shift as the mobile Web finally starts to take off. It needs to parlay its leading position on the Web today into a leading position on the mobile Web. And it cannot do that alone. The more players involved (carriers, developers, handset manufacturers), the greater the chance for delays or other hiccups. Contrast that with Apple’s approach to the iPhone, where it controls every aspect it can. Which platform will win in the end?

Five years from now, which will be the dominant mobile platform for Web applications?





Modeling The Real Market Value Of Social Networks

Michael Arrington

139 comments »

Is MySpace worth $3 billion, or $20 billion? It depends on how you value a user.

It’s time to start comparing the big global social networks on something other than unique visitors and page views. I believe an effective way to value a particular user is based on the average Internet advertising spend per person in the country they live in. The higher the spend, the more value the social network can get out of the user by serving them advertising and other products. That means that, for now, users in a handful of key countries are worth far more in terms of revenue potential than those in the rest of the world.

We’ve begun to build out a model that looks at social network usage by country/region and compares that to available data on total Internet advertising spend in each of those countries. The model is then able to turn an apples-to-oranges comparison into an apples-to-apples comparison. The early results are surprising.

The ultimate financial value of any asset is, ultimately, what the market will pay for it. We have only a few data points to help us: Facebook, Bebo and LinkedIn are worth $15 billion, $850 million and $1 billion, respectively, based on relatively recent valuations (although only Bebo was actually sold completely; Facebook and LinkedIn raised investments at those valuations). The last valuation of MySpace was just $580 million, back in 2005 when it was acquired by News Corp.

Which valuation is most “correct?” It’s hard to say based on the data that’s been available to date, which is mostly just aggregate page view and unique visitor numbers from Comscore and other services. Based on worldwide unique visitors, for example, Facebook recently overtook MySpace to become the “largest” social network.

According to raw worldwide user number, the biggest social networks are Facebook, Myspace, Hi5, Friendster, Orkut and Bebo, in that order. But when you apply the model that we’ve created below, which takes into account where users live, the rankings change substantially. MySpace is by far the most valuable social network based on available data. A competitor like Orkut is worth only 1/20th of MySpace, even though it has nearly 1/4 the number of users.

Properly Ranking Social Networks

Our model takes Comscore data for available countries and regions. We’ve graphed each of 26 well known social networks with the data we have been able to collect. We’ve then calculated the average advertising spend (estimated by PriceWaterhouseCoopers in a recent report) for each person online in each of those countries. For example, in the U.S., the total 2008 estimated Internet advertising spend is $25.2 billion. We’ve divided that by the number of people online in the U.S. according to Comscore (191 million), to get an average Internet spend per person of $132. View the raw data and calculations here.

The U.S., by the way, is only the 4th most valuable market per Internet user, trailing The UK ($213), Australia ($148) and Denmark ($144).

We’ve then multiplied the average Internet spend per user in each market with the number of unique users each social network has in that market, essentially creating a “weighted average” based on the advertising dollars chasing users. If a social network has more users in the U.S., Japan, the UK, Germany, Australia, and other bigger advertising networks, they will have a higher weighted average valuation.

We believe this model is an effective way to rank various competing social networks. It bumps down networks like Orkut and Friendster who have tens of millions of users in markets with very little advertising spend, and bumps up networks with lots of users in higher value markets.

Based on this model, MySpace is by far the most valuable social network. Second place Facebook has just 75% of the value of MySpace (even though it now has more users), followed by Bebo (26% of MySpace value), Hi5 and Amebio. LinkedIn comes in at no. 11, at 6% of MySpace’s value.

Valuation Ranges

The real-world revenue numbers being reported for the big networks supports this approach to valuation and shows a direct tie between monetization efforts and where a network’s users are. MySpace is estimated to have generated $755 million in revenue over the last year. The (now) larger Facebook, with a far higher percentage of users in less lucrative markets, will generate just $255 million this year:

EMarketer estimates that MySpace will post $755 million in revenue in the fiscal year ending June 30. MySpace would not comment on the estimate. About a third of the revenue is expected to come from the Google ad pact. For the year, Facebook is estimated to earn $265 million in ad revenue.

Since we have three recent data points valuing social networks (Facebook at $15 billion, Bebo at $850 million, LinkedIn at $1 billion), we can start to apply valuation ranges based on the model. Facebook’s 10.2 million value points and $15 billion valuation puts a $1,467 value on each value point. LinkedIn is valued very similarly, at $1,325 per value point. Bebo, with lots of users in the rich UK market, appears to have been undervalued at only $241 per value point.

Based on these three publicly available data points we’ve created value ranges for each of the top 25 worldwide social networks. There is a very wide disparity (MySpace, for example, is worth between $3.3 billion and $20 billion, based on which comparable you look at). But it does yield very interesting data. For example, If Facebook and LinkedIn were valued similarly to Bebo, they would be worth just $2.5 billion and $182 million, respectively, far less than what their investors recently paid for a piece of them.

Interestingly, the recent sale of Polish social network Nasza-klasa for $92 million appears to be right in sync with Bebo’s price. The model estimates its value at $91 million based on Bebo’s valuation metrics.

There are some big flaws with the model and analysis in its current state. First, LinkedIn may be in a different class of network, given that all of its users are business focused (no super-poking going on there). As a result, it may be able to monetize users far better than its competitors, no matter what geographic market is being looked at. Still, we’ve decided to leave it in as a data point, with that caveat.

The model itself needs more data. The user numbers are based on April Comscore. We will shortly revise it with the May numbers, although the absolute rankings probably won’t change. More importantly, some big markets are not included yet. The Chinese Internet advertising market, for example, is estimated to be $2 billion in 2008, yet they are not included (mostly because I can’t find data on user numbers for the networks). Also, the Philippines isn’t broken out separately, again due to data availability issues (although the total Internet advertising market in the Philippines is just $3 million this year, so it won’t affect the rankings materially even though Friendster is so strong there). Finally, Russia is currently grouped with “the rest of Europe,” and needs to be separately broken out - it has a large and growing online advertising market and lots of users, so that update may affect the mid-level network rankings.

The advertising spend model is just an estimate and from a single source. I’m less concerned with this data since it doesn’t matter to the model if the estimates are absolutely correct. If the estimates are wrong by different rates in different countries, however, the model will break. If we find better relative data between countries, we’ll update the model with that data. But for now, the PriceWaterhouseCoopers data seems to be pretty good.

Finally, this model doesn’t take into account execution at the company level. Two very similar networks may monetize vastly differently based on methods of advertising and even the brute effort and passion of the employees. This model obviously doesn’t take that into account.

I also note Andrew Chen’s analysis last week which takes a similar approach to this using Google Trends data instead of Comscore. The Google data isn’t granular enough to really dig in to relative values, however, and he was lacking current and deep data on average Internet spend. Still, I agree with his methodology.

As I wrote at the very end of this post, you have to consider the current monetization value of users when comparing social networks. Raw user numbers are pointless without it.

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Breaking: Germany’s Plazes Acquired By Nokia

Michael Arrington

34 comments »

Berlin, Germany based Plazes, a location based social network (and one of the first startups we ever wrote about here on TechCrunch, back in 2005), has been acquired by Finland-based Nokia, the companies are announcing today. The price is not being disclosed.

We most recently wrote about Plazes new iPhone application in May 2008, which will take advantage of the cutting edge location technologies available on the phone (cell triangulation and GPS). The company has raised a total of €3.7 million in venture financing over two round, although the last round was closed in February 2007.

This is the second “mobile social network” in Europe to be acquired in as many months - Danish startup ZYB was acquired by Vodafone in May for €31.5 million.

Co-founder Felix Petersen told me in a hastily scheduled phone call that the company will maintain its Berlin office and all thirteen employees. The Plazes product will become Nokia’s Services & Software unit.

In 2006 Nokia acquired Berlin based Gate5 for a rumored $250 million and turned the product into Nokia Maps, which is deployed in 300 markets. Petersen says the success of that acquisition gave Plazes a lot of comfort in working with Nokia.

As a funny aside, a year ago Petersen was busted by his own product as he avoided one conference to attend another.

Update: by Mike Butcher, TechCrunch UK: My industry sources are telling me that this was a smart acquisition for Nokia, which needed to have a consumer based offering outside the rigid maps infrastructure they have, since the purchase last year of Navteq.

There is also a local story here. The Plazes office is in Berlin, physically close to the Gate 5 people, and we know from good authority that Gate 5 people are highly respected on the Berlin scene. It’s therefore likely that they had a lot to do with the acquisition thinking inside Nokia as they know the guys from Plazes.

From what we know about Nokia, the purchase of Plazes fits in with their strategy in terms of context and location and what to do with it. Put together the Ad system they have, and they control a strong section of the mobile ecosystem from ad generation, delivery through branded channels, with good profile information about the user, especially since most new handsets from Nokia now have GPS built in.


June 22, 2008

CrunchBase: Now With Maps, Advanced Search, Jobs, And Milestones

Henry Work

51 comments »

We’re proud to announce today a slew of new improvements to CrunchBase, our directory for information about the tech startup ecosystem.

Maps

Company and financial organization headquarters are now geocoded and locatable on an interactive map using the Google Maps API.

Say you’re checking out Yelp and want to see just where the company is located and what other startups are nearby. You can click on the [map] link next to Yelp’s address and its headquarters will show up among its 50 closest neighbors, including Kongregate the building over and Slide just a few blocks away.

Furthermore, you can now browse by City, State, Zip Code, or Country. Or choose an arbitrary location and map all of the results within a certain range (e.g., all the startups within 10 miles of Sydney, the 165 companies in Manhattan, or the VCs on Sand Hill Road).

We are also now tracking multiple offices for some of the larger organizations (see Sequoia Capital).

Advanced Search

Our new advanced search capabilities really capitalize on CrunchBase’s structured wiki format. In addition to simple keyword search, users can now search companies, financial organizations, and people by indicating special criteria to which they want results to conform. Now you can, for example, search for all companies founded after 2004 with at least $50 million in funding that have been featured on TechCrunch.

What’s great about structured data is that it’s so easily aggregated. We have lists for all the funding rounds and acquisitions in CrunchBase, each of which is sortable in various ways.

And with advanced search, you can drill down into specific results - even when geography comes into play. For example, you can make a query for all companies within 5 miles of London that have been acquired since 2004. Or all people under the age of 30 who’ve been a part of successfully acquired companies. We’ll continue to improve our search capabilities, so please leave any requests and suggestions in the comments.

Jobs

We’re now showing CrunchBoard job listings on company pages. You’ll now see, for example, that Digg is hiring. With this additional functionality, and our LinkedIn API integration, we hope CrunchBase will become an ever-more important research tool for job seekers.

Milestones

Milestones is our newest and most experimental feature on CrunchBase. It was inspired by our writing team, which receives many press releases with titles like “Service X hits the 1 Million user mark,” or “Company Y hires new CEO.”

While these news items don’t always make TechCrunch’s front page, we wanted a place to highlight them in CrunchBase, so we created a lightweight data type called Milestones. It’s pretty simple: each milestone has a date, description, and source (if available somewhere on the net).

We hope to create a useful timeline of events for every company and product. Here are some of Twitter’s recent milestones:

And as before, CrunchBase is all about community participation. Not only do we add data to the system ourselves, but we encourage everyone else to contribute as well. Notice any missing or incorrect data? Just hit the “Edit This Page” button in the top-right of any profile page and submit your requisite changes. Companies, financial organizations, and people can also be added from the homepage.

Expect to see more community features soon as work to give contributors a greater presence on the site.

viernes, 20 de junio de 2008

Qbox Beta Launches Streaming Music Straight from Social Networks

June 20, 2008 — 09:49 AM PDT — by Alana Taylor — — 4 Comments

Qbox logo

In the world of Web 2.0 there’s really no limit as to what you can and cannot make “social.” There’s social networks for everything under the sun and now the latest one to launch is Qbox, a social network music service that lets you listen to millions of songs streaming directly from social networks like MySpace, YouTube, and Bebo.

What Qbox does is take the audience of social networking sites and allow them to interact with musicians through its dynamic music application. Now users of these media sites will no longer be limited to searching just within those sites for music because Qbox’s Qplayer offers over 21 million songs, all streaming directly from musician’s pages and profiles.

On the surface, Qbox appears to be “just another music player.” It has the friendly feel of the Yahoo Media Player, the social warmth of Buzzwire, the flexibility of Snocap and the live streaming abilities of FineTune. And that’s just to name a few.

Qbox does, however, have some pretty innovative features. For example, the Qbox toolbar lets you listen to music whenever you search for bands on Wikipedia and listen to songs when a musician’s name is mentioned in a news page. Just by highlighting keywords from songs or bands, Qbox will automatically stream the music you are interested in listening to.

The way Qbox finds all its music is completely UGC-based and acts as a wiki that keeps growing. Users can listen to songs from a huge database, listen to recommended songs based on their tastes, and keep in touch with their favorite musicians.

Continue Reading Qbox Beta Launches Streaming Music Straight f...

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Which Niche has the Long Tail in Online Video?

June 20, 2008 — 08:41 AM PDT — by Guest Writer — — 2 Comments

David Burch is the Marketing Manager for TubeMogul, the first online video analytics and distribution company to serve online video producers across a variety of video serving platforms. His guest post today is a deeper look at one of the many statistical analysis pieces TubeMogul publishes on their company blog.

Here at TubeMogul we recently authored a study answering the following question: throughout the life of a video, do most views occur in the first days and weeks or are they distributed randomly over time? Since we track millions of videos, we took a random sample of 10,000 videos, hired a statistician and found a clear answer in the aggregate data: video viewership peaks early.

In that, we found that on average, videos are quite time-sensitive. Trends pointed elsewhere, such as “evergreen” (non-time sensitive) content always fetching views, or videos randomly “going viral,” seem more of a rarity than an underlying trend in the data.

While we were pitching the story to Mashable, Mark “Rizzn” Hopkins asked a cutting question: what if you broke the results down by video category (i.e. “How-To”)?

Good question. Here are the results we broke down for him and the readers of Mashable:

Continue Reading Which Niche has the Long Tail in Online Video...

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Thanks to This Week’s Sponsors

June 20, 2008 — 08:25 AM PDT — by Tamar Weinberg — — Add a Comment

Advertise

Thanks to this week’s advertisers and partners for helping us grow to be the #1 social news blog in the world.

Advertise with us and get noticed.

Help us to help you. Mashable is seeking out site sponsors for our large diverse audience — social media users, venture capitalists, PR people, developers, bloggers, and many more. You’ll receive hundreds of thousands of views a day in addition to weekly recognition to thank you as our premium sponsors. Are you interested? Contact us for more information and to receive our brand new media kit and rate card.

This week, our valued sponsors are Limelight, IDrive AdParlor, and Userplane.

Don’t trust your rich media delivery to any NETWORK BUT THE BEST. Designed for rich media, Limelight Networks is the premier CDN for quality and speed. Instantly and brilliantly deliver your movies, games, music, software, or large content catalogs. Visit Limelight Networks now for a free network test. Limelight Networks — rich media delivery at its richest.

IDrive

IDrive is a leading Consumer and Small Business focused Online Backup service. IDrive is a simple and safe way to back up all the important stuff on your computer. A copy of user data is stored in a secure, remote location for safekeeping, so that in the event of disaster user data is retrievable from anywhere via Internet. IDrive’s features include automated critical data selection and scheduling via web as well as desktop agent, fast search to backup data, central console to manage multiple accounts, Continuous Data Backup, Open File and Locked file backup, Virtual Drive access and many more.

AdParlor is an advertising network designed specifically for social networking sites. We connect advertisers looking to advertise on social networking sites with developers who are looking to monetize their social networking applications. We offer advertisers specific targeting options and results driven campaigns and we offer publishers some of the highest eCPM’s in the industry! We currently support myspace and facebook and will soon be expanding to include bebo, Hi5, and orkut.

Userplane is the premier communication platform for online communities. The company’s hosted applications enable instant community and communication for websites of any scale and audience. The combination of instant and elegant with robust and powerful has made the platform a must-have for thriving sites worldwide - supporting millions of daily users.

Additionally, thanks to the following partners for making Mashable happen:

Thanks to ConVerdge for implementing our My Mashable social network and W3 MARKUP for the development and maintenance of Mashable.com

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We can get your name out there.

Contact us for more information on supporting Mashable’s growth and development. Alternatively, visit our advertise section for more details about:

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CPM-based advertising is available through our partner, Federated Media, but contact us for information.

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“Sleepless in Seattle:” SummerMash Tickets on Sale

June 20, 2008 — 08:00 AM PDT — by Karen Hartline — — 1 Comment

Mashable\'s US Summer Tour 2008

Only 21 more days until Mashable arrives in Seattle to kick off the U.S. Summer Tour. If you didn’t know, Pete Cashmore, Sean Aune and Karen Hartline all love coffee, which is why we’ll be ready to keep the party going all night long in Seattle where the coffee flows like water. It’s our first time in Seattle and we need to be shown how it’s done. Join us at Showbox where we’ll have food and drink, and DJ El Toro mixing things up. And don’t worry, we have a few surprises in store too.


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CD Sales Fall Faster Than Digital Music Sales Rise. Or Do They?

June 20, 2008 — 02:32 AM PDT — by Stan Schroeder — — 7 Comments

I’m reading a report published by the International Herald Tribune about the decline of music sales on physical media such as CDs and DVDs, and I’m not sure what the record industry is whining about.

Here’s a quote that boggles me:

In 2007… Physical sales of CDs and DVDs fell 13 percent to $15.9 billion. Sales of downloaded songs and mobile-phone ringtones rose 34 percent to $2.9 billion.

Yes, I agree: looking at these numbers alone, the industry is not earning as much money as they did before. But take notice of the percentages. Physical sales = down 13 percent; digital sales = up 34 percent. At this exact rate of growth, in five years the revenue from digital sales will be 12.5 billion. At the exact rate of decline, physical sales will be down to 7.9 billion in five years. Add the two numbers together, and you get around 20.5 billion in overall revenue. Currently, this number is 18.8 billion.

These numbers are crude and they do not take into account many important factors, for example the rise or decline of revenue from previous years. However, they show that the situation is not so bad as the record industry would have us believe: if they weather the storm - which, when you consider how disruptive Internet as a medium was to the industry, was inevitable - for a couple of years, they’ll be back on track of earning obscene amounts of money.

This is far from the usual “piracy is killing the record industry” cry we regularly hear from RIAA and the IFPI. And I bet you one thing: if the percentages, not absolute numbers, looked more favorable to them, the IFPI would put the emphasis on them.

One also must take into account the fact that the record industry has been really slow and inefficient when it comes to adapting their business models to the age of the Internet. It was only last year when the majors decided to drop the dreaded DRM, traces of which still linger on, annoying countless users. I bet that when they stop spending money on lawsuits and start rethinking the way they do business, the revenue from digital sales will soar even faster.

It’s easy to extrapolate some enormous number of money lost due to file sharing. John Kennedy, chairman of the IFPI, mentions “30 billion illegal downloads in 2007“, while “physical and digital piracy cost the U.S. music industry alone $5.3 billion“. But the fact is, those 30 billion downloads do not directly translate to lost dollars. They’re an opportunity, mostly untapped by the industry, to make even more cash. “Even the most innovative business models are totally undermined by free music” says Kennedy. Yeah, right. The industry is doing fine; they’re whining because they’re greedy.

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RSSmeme and Bloggers’ (Copy)rights

June 19, 2008 — 11:51 PM PDT — by Mark 'Rizzn' Hopkins — — 19 Comments

rssmeme-logo.png
Copyright allegations against the blogosphere seem to be all the rage these days. The last several days on both TechMeme and Memeorandum have been filled with analysis and reporting on the AP’s new policy (and subsequent “retraction”) disallowing blogs from quoting in whole or partiality any of their wire pieces without proper payment and license. This odd trend continues, not from an Old Media source, but from a member of the blogosphere. Louis Gray reports that Benjamin Golub, creator of RSSMeme, has received threat of legal action for linking and re-publishing articles found to be popularly shared on Google Reader:

Today, RSSmeme’s Benjamin Golub, who has developed a tracker for the most popular shared items on Google Reader, saw one unhappy publisher threaten him with legal action after she had found her feed included in the service. [...] Talking with him by phone this afternoon, he said the complainant’s feed had only been shared two times, by a single sharer. But she had essentially penned an e-mail saying to “remove all content, or I will send a lawyer.”

We Like RSSmeme and Services Like It…
We’ve covered RSSmeme extensively in the past, and I’m a fan of the service (as well as its friendly ‘competitor’, Adam Ostrow’s Readburner. Shyftr is yet another service that has been on the receiving end of controversy over this type of thing (though no legal threats I’ve been made aware of). I’ve noted in the past, though, the purely theoretical line in the sand that aggregators and republishers set themselves on the other side of from sploggers, and how difficult that can be to distinguish from those with untrained eyes.

To briefly re-hash all that, a splogger is someone who blatantly rips off content from a blog and publishes it with their own advertisements around it (there are hundreds of examples around the ‘Net, and none need any more link-juice). An aggregator typically republishes headlines and snippets (like, for example, TechMeme and Technorati). Then, in some of the more advanced cases, you have shared items blogs and link blogs (like Google’s Shared Items feature of Google Reader, or Tumblr) which will post either partial feeds, or more often complete feeds of the original posts, but typically without advertisements.

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Does Affiliate Marketing Mix with Social Media?

June 19, 2008 — 07:57 PM PDT — by Mark 'Rizzn' Hopkins — — 50 Comments

After I and Inquisitr’s Duncan Riley yesterday both expressed a bit of apprehension that the sometimes unscrupulous world of affiliate and MLM marketing might be making its way to the Twittersphere, John Reese (founder of traffic funnelling pyramid scheme BlogRush) decided to “set the record straight” on his personal blog. Unfortunately for John, much like in his marketing verbiage, he was unable to stay very far away from hyperbole and the ridiculous allegation that I didn’t research my position before I promoted it.

Of the many things that John took issue with, the first thing he mentioned was that both Duncan and I didn’t do our research. As evidence of this, he bragged that he’d “never sold an ebook since I’ve been marketing online for over 15 years.” I stand corrected on this point. He gave away ebooks to sell “digital home study materials.” Essentially, books on CD. Not ebooks, per se, but pretty close.

Most of the rest of his post, in retort, reads like the marketing verbiage you probably remember from BlogRush and from the excerpts of his Twitter letter Duncan and I quoted. “I’m the best,” and “I’ve made high traffic sites,” and “I made all this money, and it was only my side project.” I’m sure that impresses a lot of folks, otherwise how else would he have have sold all his “not-ebooks.” His defenses of his actions seem to amount to “I’m rich, so I’m right.” Bank robbers can be rich, too. That doesn’t make them right either.

His thrust of his retorts seem to be that I’m some sort of anti-marketing hippie, and that my “lack of research” is a thorough indication that something is rotten in the state of Mashable (or perhaps even blogging entirely?). Anyone that has followed my opinion pieces in general, or who actually knows me, knows this is laughable, as I’ve many times defended marketing from undue government regulation and attack. What I (and most human beings, for that matter) hate with a passion are hucksters trying to pawn off on me something I don’t need or have any use or interest in. This is something in which, unfortunately, the affiliate marketing world excels in. That isn’t an indictment of everyone who might be an affiliate marketer, but it is an indictment of a lot of the more visible members of this demographic.
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Facebook Search in Your Inbox

June 19, 2008 — 06:19 PM PDT — by Mark 'Rizzn' Hopkins — — 7 Comments

Facebook announced a short while ago that they’re rolling out a utility that brings true usefulness to their messaging function. They’re going to allow users of Facebook the ability to search through past inbox messages.

Ever had a friend send you a Facebook message suggesting a good restaurant? Or maybe you were sent an address or phone number of an old friend. Then time passes and your Inbox fills up, and by the time you’re ready to go out to eat with your old friend you have to page through hundreds of Facebook messages to find the one you need. Inbox Search aims to fix this problem.

In terms of additional features that improve the service directly available to the user (as opposed to developers or advertisers), its been a while since something caught my eye as something that would make me want to look at the service as anything other than a black hole for time and a place to get turned into a zombie (or a pirate).

For folks like me, we’re still a bit concerned about the inability to move data in and out of the system at will, but for the average user, this is likely to have a significant impact in terms of retaining new users and increasing the amount of trust existing users put into the system, at least in terms of communications.

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SoCruise Connects the Cruise Community Online

June 19, 2008 — 05:20 PM PDT — by Alana Taylor — — 7 Comments

Web 2.0 has been advancing the way we connect with our friends and family, but it has also introduced all kinds of communities to the Internet that may not have otherwise existed. SoCruise is one of them.

SoCruise is a social networking site focused on uniting the cruise community online. Cruises are a popular choice for sunshine-loving vacationers, and now SoCruise will provide these vacationers with a chance to connect their experiences. From Norwegian Cruises to Caribbean cruises, SoCruise creates networks for hundreds of different ships and communities.

It almost seems ridiculous not to have a cruise social network. Oftentimes it is on holiday trips and vacations that people form close relationships with others they meet along the way, but have trouble keeping in touch. Not only does SoCruise keep its users in a tight-knit community, like any social network, it lets them create profiles, upload pictures, and post notes. It can also help them generate personalized cruise trips, deals, and holiday offers.

For having launched just last week, SoCruise is very advanced. It’s perfect for advertisers because it lets them analyze user information to send specific offers. But I have issues with the fact that it looks too much like Expedia.com instead of a place to socialize, network, and grow a community.

And in terms of travel, perhaps the site is a bit too niche. The users who join this site will have to be the kind of people who love cruise ships enough to travel on them multiple times a year and want to be connected to their cruise ship buddies all the time. If these people exist, more power to them. But for the people who only go on cruise ships once or twice a year, general trip-planning social sites like TripTie or TripWiser may be more useful.